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US Foreign Policy

Environmental Politics

Michael E. Flynn

Kansas State University

2024-12-02

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Lecture Overview

  1. What are the issues?

  2. Why is cooperation so difficult?

  3. The environment and security issues

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Key Questions

  1. What is the current state of the international environmental and climate change regimes?

  2. What are some of the key environmental issues in US foreign policy?

  3. Why is it difficult for states and people to cooperate on environmental issues? What are the sources of conflict?

  4. What are some of the key frameworks or mental models we can use to help us understand the politics of environmental issues?

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The Issues?

Pollution

  • Air, water, land, etc.

  • Sometimes related to global warming, but not always

To right: A photo of smog blanketing Beijing, China in January of 2012. Photo obtained from The Guardian.

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Snapshot of global air quality station readings, April 20, 2022.

Snapshot of global air quality station readings, April 20, 2022.

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Photo of the Great Pacific Garbage Patch.

Photo of the Great Pacific Garbage Patch.

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Photo of a sperm whale that died with 220 pounds of debris in its stomach. Photo obtained from the New York Times.

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The Issues?

Acid rain

  • Industrial emissions of sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides blend with moisture in the air

  • Increases the acidity of rain, snow, fog, and clouds

  • Kills fish, insects, amphibians, bacteria, and vegetation

To right: Photo of forested area affected by acid rain

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The Issues?

Overconsumption

  • Over-consumption of renewable natural resources

  • Consumption exceeds rate of renewal

  • Includes fish, terrestrial game, and animals killed for trophies or traditional medicinal remedies (elephants, rhinos), but also includes plant life.

To right: Atlantic Cod

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The Issues?

Depleted uranium munitions

  • Higher density than lead

  • Used for armor piercing rounds

  • Concerns about health and environmental effects

To right: A-10 Warthog firing machine guns

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The Issues?

Military Bases

  • Lots of munitions and chemicals

  • One massive industrial accident

  • Chemicals from daily operations often contaminate soil or water supplies

  • Old munitions may remain unexploded, harming people years later

  • Construction of new facilities can harm the environment.

To right: US Naval base at Pearl Harbor where fuel stored at Red Hill storage facility supplies have contaminated Hawaii's drinking water supplies.

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Why is Cooperation Difficult?

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Why is Cooperation Difficult?

Many reasons:

  • Coordinating behavior between multiple countries and billions of people is hard

  • Costs of environmental protection are not evenly distributed across individuals, industries, or countries

  • Benefits of better protections are often diffuse.

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Why is Cooperation Difficult?

How do we conceptualize environmental issues? What mental models can help us?

We can use concepts we've seen before!

Key concepts:

  • Public goods and Private goods

  • Common pool resources (CPRs): Resources that everyone can access. Examples include fisheries, hunting on public land, etc.

  • Negative externalities

Table 13.1 from FLS
Excludable Nonexcludable
Rival Private Goods Common Pool Resources
Nonrival Club Goods Public Goods
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Why is Cooperation Difficult?

Collective action problem:

  • Assume that we all prefer a cleaner environment

  • There are individual costs to pursuing this goal

  • Gains from your individual contribution are minimal

  • Why not enjoy the good, but not pay for it?

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Why is Cooperation Difficult?

Example: Hudson River in New York

  • General Electric (GE) dumped massive amounts of PCBs and TCEs into Hudson River

  • PCBs have contaminated area drinking water, soil, etc.

  • These chemicals have been linked to cancer, birth defects and developmental difficulties, liver damage, kidney damage, as well as nervous system disorders

  • State tax dollars in excess of $50 million have been spent on cleanup

To right: NY State Department of Environmental Conservation sign declaring catch and release fishing restrictions due to pollution

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Why is Cooperation Difficult?

Example: Acid Rain

  • Source: Power plants and industry in Midwest and Great Lakes states

  • Industrial emissions of sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides blend with moisture in the air

  • Emissions carried into Adirondack Mountains in NY and Canada where acid rain became problematic

  • Increases the acidity of rain, snow, fog, and clouds

  • Kills fish, insects, amphibians, bacteria, and vegetation

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Notes

-General Electric had factories along the Hudson. Dumped massive amounts of PCBs and TCEs into the river. -PCBs: Polychlorinated biphenyl. Used as coolant and insulation for power transformers. -TCEs: Trichloroethene. Industrial solvent. Highly toxic. -Linked to a variety of ailments. -Chemicals have contaminated the river and seeped into local water supplies. GE sought to avoid litigation by promising to provide people with water if they didn’t sue. -NY residents have paid over $50 million in tax dollars to clean up Hudson River. Dredging has taken several years.

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Why Is Cooperation Difficult?

Environmental regulation can be costly

  • Creates winners and losers (much like trade protection!)

  • Costs of regulation tend to be highly concentrated

  • Benefits are widely dispersed (we all enjoy a cleaner environment)

  • Opponents of regulatory policies enjoy advantages in overcoming collective action problems

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Why Is Cooperation Difficult?

Environmental regulation can be costly

  • Creates winners and losers (much like trade protection!)

  • Costs of regulation tend to be highly concentrated

  • Benefits are widely dispersed (we all enjoy a cleaner environment)

  • Opponents of regulatory policies enjoy advantages in overcoming collective action problems

Scientific uncertainty (i.e. model prediction error)

  • Predictions from scientific models become increasingly uncertain over large time ranges

  • Uncertainty is exploited by different groups for political leverage

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Why Is Cooperation Difficult?

International sources conflict

  • Developing countries argue that environmental regulation is biased in that they impose unfair costs on developing states

  • Western countries were able to develop without worrying about environmental issues and are responsible for the largest quantities of emissions

  • Developed countries are also better able (more capacity) to combat climate change

  • Wealthier countries responsible for greater share of global emissions

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Why Is Cooperation Difficult?

There have been successes

  • Ozone

  • Acid rain

  • Whaling

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Maximum yearly size of the ozone hole from 1979 to 2023. Image courtesy of the European Environment Agency.

Maximum yearly size of the ozone hole from 1979 to 2023. Image courtesy of the European Environment Agency.

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Notes

From NASA's Earth Observatory:

  • Records in depth and area have never occurred during the same years (the largest ozone hole occurred in 2006), but the long-term trend in both characteristics is consistent: from 1980 through the early 1990s, the hole rapidly grew in area and depth. In the early years of the 21st century, annual ozone holes roughly stabilized (see the Ozone Hole Watch website for annual averages). Year-to-year fluctuations in area and depth are caused by variations in stratospheric temperature and circulation. Colder conditions result in a larger area and lower ozone values in the center of the hole.

  • The ozone hole opened the world’s eyes to the global effects of human activity on the atmosphere. Scientists found out that chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)—long-lived chemicals that had been used in refrigerators and aerosol sprays since the 1930s—had a dark side. In the layer of the atmosphere closest to Earth (the troposphere), CFCs circulated for decades without degrading or reacting with other chemicals. When they reached the stratosphere, however, their behavior changed. In the upper stratosphere (beyond the protection of the ozone layer), ultraviolet light caused CFCs to break apart, releasing chlorine, a very reactive atom that repeatedly catalyzes ozone destruction.

  • The global recognition of the destructive potential of CFCs led to the 1987 Montreal Protocol, a treaty phasing out the production of ozone-depleting chemicals. Scientists estimate that about 80 percent of the chlorine (and bromine, which has a similar ozone-depleting effect) in the stratosphere over Antarctica today comes from human, not natural, sources.

  • Models suggest that the concentration of chlorine and other ozone-depleting substances in the stratosphere will not return to pre-1980 levels until the middle decades of the 21st century. Scientists have already seen the first definitive proof of ozone recovery, observing a 20 percent decrease in ozone depletion during the winter months from 2005 to 2016. In 2019, abnormal weather patterns in the upper atmosphere over Antarctica dramatically limited ozone depletion, leading to the smallest hole since 1982. Models predict that the Antarctic ozone layer will mostly recover by 2040.

Why Is Cooperation Difficult?

Private-public solutions

Example: Cap and trade

  • Sets a cap on total output / emissions of a given pollutant

  • Companies can sell “credits” to other companies for pollution that they don’t produce

  • This incentivizes cleaner technologies, as companies can profit from reduced emissions

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Representatives from countries around the world gather for the United Nations Conference on Climate Change in Paris, 2015. Photo from the World Economic Forum.

Representatives from countries around the world gather for the United Nations Conference on Climate Change in Paris, 2015. Photo from the World Economic Forum.

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Notes

  • Chapter 27 of the United Nations Charter
  • Adopted on December 12, 2015.
  • Entered into force on November 4, 2016. The Agreement enters into force on the thirtieth day after the date on which at least 55 Parties to the Convention accounting in total for at least an estimated 55 per cent of the total global greenhouse gas emissions have deposited their instruments of ratification, acceptance, approval or accession. Currently 194 signatories. President Trump initiated withdrawal in summer of 2017, making US one of the only countries to not sign on.

Key provisions:

  • Individual countries can decide how to best reduce emissions.
  • Calls for international cooperation—financial, political, and technological—in pursuit of reductions.
  • Article 2: Hold global average temperature to “well below 2° Celsius above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5° C above pre-industrial levels. Also says that adaptation to climate change must not threaten food production. Calls for financial flows to be implemented to “reflect equity and the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, in the light of different national circumstances.”
  • Article 4: To achieve Article 2, countries aim to reach global peaking of greenhouse gas emission as soon as possible. Also states that, “Developed country Parties shall continue taking the lead by undertaking economy-wide absolute emission reduction targets. Developing country Parties should continue enhancing their mitigation efforts, and are encouraged to move over time towards economy-wide emission reduction or limitation targets in the light different national circumstances” Basically, this is saying that countries develop their own plans, but developed countries should pursue economy-wide measures and LDCs should have more narrow measures that expand as the economy grows.
  • Article 9: Developed countries will provide less-developed countries with financial assistance to help implement mitigation and adaptation measures. This addresses both 1) limited capacity, and 2) unequal adjustment costs associated with signing the agreement. Agreement sets a fund of $100 billion per year to be allocated by developed countries for the purposes of helping less-developed countries adjust.
  • Article 10: Calls for financial assistance to develop technologies that can help mitigation efforts, or to share technologies that can help mitigation.

Why Is Cooperation Difficult?

Security Issues

  • National security concerns and environmental issues can be in tension

  • These issues become more complicated when they involve multiple countries

  • Overseas basing involves multiple competing parties and interests

    • US military/government
    • Host governments
    • Local governments
    • Host population
    • Local and Transnational Advocacy Networks (TANs)

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Example of Okinawa:

  • Okinawa has long been a flashpoint in US overseas basing and there have been a a number of high-profile incidents involving conflict between US personnel and locals.

  • Following the 1995 rape of a young girl by three US service members, the United States and Japanese governments planned to close US Marine Corps Air Station Futenma, located in the city of Ginowan, and move to a new location in the Oura Bay oh Henoko.

  • However, locals and environmental activists have opposed the creation of the new base because it would involve destroying significant amounts of coral reefs, harming the habitats of numerous ocean animals, and would likely cause significant pollution in the surrounding environment.

  • The new location would also infringe on the habitat of the endangered Dugong.

  • The plan has involved significant coordination problems and conflict between various entities.

Photo of a Dugong and its calf. Image obtained from Terracycle Global Foundation

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Why Is Cooperation Difficult?

Development Projects

  • Infrastructure projects often involve significant environmental costs
  • These costs can be distributed across borders
  • Costs often take the form of redistribution of natural resources
  • Example: Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

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  • Ethiopia is building a massive dam on the Nile River. The dam is expected to provide significant amounts of electricity to Ethiopia,

  • Egypt argues that the dam will also reduce the amount of water available to downstream countries, particularly Egypt. The Nile is a source of fresh water for agriculture and consumption in downstream countries.

  • US has security relationships with countries like Egypt and Ethiopia.

  • Droughts and economic hardships imposed by altering natural resource distribution can create security issues, like mass migration due to economic or humanitarian reasons.

Why Is Cooperation Difficult?

Conflict

  • Will climate change lead to increased armed conflict?

  • Yes? No? Maybe?

  • Direct vs indirect causal pathways?

    • Direct: Effects felt through competition over increasingly scarce resources?
    • Indirect: Climate change increases severity and variability of shocks, thereby affecting migration, economic interests, natural resources, etc.

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Lecture Overview

  1. What are the issues?

  2. Why is cooperation so difficult?

  3. The environment and security issues

2 / 34
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